Most parts of South India seems to have received insufficient rainfall. Crop yields bound to be lower. Across TN, where I have visited, the farmers are not happy.
Last few days, travelling around Goa and Maharashtra, many places have been struck with unseasonal rains, hailstorms and what not. The temperatures are down. How does this affect the standing crops? From what talks I have had with a few people, looks like many harvests are impacted negatively.
There is also write ups or news about El Nino impact having the impact of a highly reduced monsoon this year. If this happens, we are in deep trouble as far as agricultural output is concerned.
This means misery for the farmers, higher prices of food items due to shortages and overall reduced spending. A combination of all the negatives would lead to a stagnant GDP impact.
RBI will have a problem on its hands if inflation does not come down. And this year, with no budget, so as to speak of, there may not be any policy initiatives to stem the rot.
Combined with the political uncertainties (possibilities of a really hung parliament leading to unstable alliances), I pray to the rain Gods to deliver. Climate change is here. And not very good for us.